Fundamentals Provide Strong Support, Short-Term Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Commentary]

Published: Jan 15, 2025 16:28

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures continued to fluctuate upward. The most-traded I2505 contract ultimately closed at 782.5, up 0.71% for the day. Traders showed relatively high enthusiasm for shipments, with a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Steel mills were cautious in procurement, and some mills have tender plans. Today's market trading volume was average. Transaction prices remained stable compared to yesterday. According to SMM's forecast based on steel mill blast furnace maintenance and production resumption plans, pig iron output is expected to see incremental growth over the next two weeks. Considering the relatively small inventory pressure on the industrial side and the rebound in steel mill profits, short-term support remains strong, and ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward this week. ......

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Today, DCE iron ore futures continued to fluctuate upward. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 782.5 yuan/mt, up 0.71% throughout the day. Traders were active in selling, with a relatively strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Steel mills were cautious in procurement, and some mills had bidding plans. Today's market trading volume was moderate. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were 780-785 yuan/mt, remaining stable compared to yesterday; in Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 800-805 yuan/mt, also stable compared to yesterday. According to the SMM survey, as of January 15, the operating rate of blast furnaces at 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 85.14%, down 0.19 percentage points WoW. The daily pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.3488 million mt, up 2,800 mt WoW. Moreover, based on the blast furnace maintenance and production resumption plans of steel mills, SMM predicts that pig iron production still has room for growth in the next two weeks. Considering the relatively small inventory pressure on the industrial side and the rebound in steel mill profits, short-term support remains strong, and ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating upward this week.

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